Climatologist Patrick Michaels detected an error in the temperature record at Reagan National Airport recently, and reported it to the Washington Post‘s Capital Weather Gang, which confirmed the error and duly reported it to the National Weather Service, which acknowledged the error and replaced the instrument (which for the last year and a half has been reading 1.7 degrees F too high). So far so good. But then, as Michaels reports and comments:
… the National Weather Service told the Capital Weather Gang that there will be no corrections, despite the fact that the disparity suddenly began 19 months ago and varied little once it began. It said correcting for the error wouldn’t be “scientifically defensible.” Therefore, people can and will cite the May record as evidence for dreaded global warming with impunity. Only a few weather nerds will know the truth. Over a third of this year’s 37 90-degree-plus days, which gives us a remote chance of breaking the all time record, should also be eliminated, putting this summer rightly back into normal territory.
It is really politically unwise not to do a simple adjustment on these obviously-too-hot data. With all of the claims that federal science is being biased in service of the president’s global-warming agenda, the agency should bend over backwards to expunge erroneous record-high readings.
Right. It’s all about telling the truth.
But that’s not what America’s weather monitoring agencies have been committed to lately. As Michaels goes on to report about the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
In July, by contrast, NOAA had no problem adjusting the global temperature history. In that case, the method they used guaranteed that a growing warming trend would substitute for “the pause.” They reported in Science that they had replaced the pause (which shows up in every analysis of satellite and weather balloon data) with a significant warming trend.
Normative science says a trend is “statistically significant” if there’s less than a 5 percent probability that it would happen by chance. NOAA claimed significance at the 10 percent level, something no graduate student could ever get away with. There were several other major problems with the paper. As Judy Curry, a noted climate scientist at Georgia Tech, wrote, “color me ‘unconvinced.'”
Unfortunately, following this with the kerfuffle over the Reagan temperature records is only going to “convince” even more people that our government is blowing hot air on global warming.
First rule of science: be honest.
Featured image courtesy of Sheri Terris, Creative Commons, used by permission.
Dona says
Thank you for all your work. Keep fighting on. It is our duty to speak out whenever the truth is not being told. Truth is getting buried deeper and deeper in the muck these days.