In 1988, James Hansen confidently predicted that the world would be about 1 degree Celsius warmer today than it was then. Actually, he offered three scenarios: A, "business as usual," with rapidly rising carbon dioxide emissions, which would bring that 1 degree; B, "most plausible," with emissions remaining constant at 1988 levels, which would make the world 0.7 degree warmer today; and C, with emissions rising from 1988 to 2000 and then stabilizing, which would make the world about 0.3 … [Read more...]
Study Showing High Climate Sensitivity Deeply Flawed
If you run in the right circles, you might encounter someone who breathlessly tells us that the downward trend in estimates of climate sensitivity (how much added warmth comes from added atmospheric CO2) got turned around by a new study in Nature Climate Change, and we're back to a best estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of 3.0 for doubled CO2. That would indeed appear to be a plausible interpretation of the study. But the study itself is badly flawed, as climate sensitivity … [Read more...]
Estimates of climate sensitivity falling
Just came across this, and it's stunning. Those who charge CAGW skeptics with being anti-science need to take a look at this and consider carefully: Who's been trending right about how much warming comes from adding CO2 to the atmosphere? For in-depth discussion, see Nicholas Lewis, "Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation," Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3. Featured image from https://landshape.wordpress.com/2015/06/20/6921/. … [Read more...]
