We should mourn every death from any natural disaster. We should feel compassion not only for those who have died but also for their family and friends, who mourn their loss. Assuming that the average American has about 15 living close relatives and about 200 friends, the number of people who have lost family or friends due to Hurricane Ian probably approaches 25,000. Each now mourns, closer family and friends more deeply, more distant less deeply. As Christians, we should mourn with those who mourn.

But we should also beware the misuse of death numbers to serve political agendas.

The Washington Post breathlessly reports that Ian is likely Florida’s most deadly hurricane since 1935, with at least 117 deaths confirmed by update time at noon October 6, and that its death toll once all have been counted could approach that of Florida’s 1928 hurricane.

Here’s another instance of media using numbers to scare people but doing so irresponsibly. The absolute number of deaths isn’t the really significant datum. The death rate—the ratio of deaths to population—is the really significant datum.

Florida’s population in the 2020 census was 21,538,187; it’s risen some since then (especially because so many people have fled California and other Blue states for freedom in Florida), but we can work with that. 117 deaths would yield a death rate of 1 in 184,087.

In 1935, Florida’s population was about 1,500,000, and the 1935 hurricane killed 485; that’s a death rate of 1 in 3,505.

In 1928, Florida’s population was about 1,300,000, and the 1928 hurricane killed 1,836; that’s a death rate of about 1 in 708.

To have an equal mortality rate to the 1928 hurricane, Ian’s death toll would have to rise to about 30,000, or about 256 times what it was by the time of that WaPo update. To equal the 1935 hurricane’s death rate, the number of deaths due to Ian would have to rise to about 1,145, or about nine times the current number.

Neither is likely.