President Donald Trump attends his first G7 Summit May 26–27. There he will face enormous pressure to break a promise to those who elected him.
The promise? To get the United States out of the Paris climate treaty.
The pressure? It will come from the head of pretty much every other G7 member. Canadian socialist Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will lead. Others will follow.
Even United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May might, despite Brexit, push Trump to “stay in Paris.”
Their reason? It can’t be because they’re convinced Paris is a good deal.
Trillions for Virtually Nothing.
Full implementation will cost the world about $1 trillion a year from 2030 to 2100. And that’s an optimistic estimate. If politicians muck things up — and when do they not? — the cost could double.
For that, there’d better be a whopping temperature reduction. But by now these leaders must know there won’t be.
Why? Because the cat’s out of the bag.
Computer climate models — the sole basis of fears of dangerous warming — predict two to three times observed warming. That means they’re wrong. And that means they provide no rational basis for predicting future temperature. And no rational basis for any policy — like the Paris treaty — based on it.
But there’s another reason. Even if the models are right, fully implementing Paris would achieve only 0.3ºF of cooling by 2100. That’s about 23.3 to 46.6 trillion dollars per tenth of a degree of cooling.
And if CO2’s warming effect is only one-half to one-third what the models predict? Then the cost will be two to three times that much per tenth of a degree of cooling.
Whichever, it’s no bargain. It won’t benefit any ecosystem. It won’t slow sea level rise. It won’t reduce hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, or heat waves. It won’t save human lives.
Featured image courtesy of Flickr/European Council President.