The following is a guest column from RealClimateScience.com.
“Hot Weather.—Many a man has mopped his brow during the summer months of 1884, declaring it was the hottest weather the world ever knew, which, of course, would not be true, for the extreme heat in the record of the past has not been approached during the late summer.
In 627, the heat was so great in France and Germany, says the London Standard, that all springs dried up; water became so scarce that many people died of thirst.
In 879, work in the field had to be given up; agricultural laborers persisting in their work were struck down in a few minutes, so powerful was the sun. In 993, the sun’s rays were so fierce that vegetation burned up as under the action of fire. In 1000, rivers ran dry under the protracted heat, the fish were left dry in heaps and putrefied in a few hours. Men and animals venturing in the sun in the summer of 1022 fell down dying.
In 1132, not only did the rivers dry up, but the ground cracked and became baked to the hardness of stone. The Rhine in Alsace nearly dried up. Italy was visited with terrific heat in 1189; vegetation and plants were burned up. During the battle of Bela, in 1200, there were more victims made by the sun than by weapons; men fell down sunstruck in regular rows. The sun of 1277 was also severe; there was an absolute dearth of forage.
In 1303 and 1304, the Rhine, Loire, and Seine ran dry. In 1615, the heat throughout Europe became excessive. Scotland suffered particularly in 1625; men and beasts died in scores. Meat could be cooked by merely exposing it to the sun. Not a soul dared to venture out between noon and 4 p.m. In 1718, many shops had to be closed; the theatres were never opened for several months. Not a drop of water fell during six months.
In 1753 the thermometer rose to one hundred and eighteen degrees. In 1779, the heat at Bologna was so great that a large number of people died. In July 1793, the heat became intolerable. Vegetables were burned up and fruit dried upon the trees. The furniture and woodwork in dwelling-houses cracked and split up; meat became bad in an hour.
In Paris in 1846, the thermometer marked one hundred and twenty-five degrees in the sun. The summers of 1859, 1860, 1869, 1870, 1874, etc., although excessively hot, were not attended by any disaster.”
“STATISTICS OF HOT SUMMERS.
The excessive heat which prevail. at present (says a Paris paper) gives some interest to the following account of remarkably hot summers :—”
In 1132 the earth opened, and the rivers and spring; disappeared in Alsace. The Rhine was dried up. In 1152 the heat was so great that eggs were cooked in the sand. In 1160, at the battle of Bela, a great number of soldiers died from the heat. In 1276 and 1277, in France, there was an absolute failure of the crops of grass and oats. In 1303 and 1304, the Seine, the Loire, the Rhine, and the Danube, were passed over dry-footed. In 1393 and 1394, great numbers of animals fell dead, and the crops were scorched up. In 1440 the heat was excessive. In 1538, 1539, 1540, 1541, the rivers were almost entirely dried up. In 1556 there was a great drought over all Europe. In 1615 and 1616, the heat was overwhelming in France, Italy, and the Netherlands. In 1646 there were fifty-eight consecutive days of excessive heat. In 1678 there was excessive heat. The same was the case in the first three years of the 18th century.
In 1718 it did not rain once from the month of April to the month of October. The crops were burnt up; the riven were dried up, and the theatres were closed by decree of the Lieutenant of Police. The thermometer marked 36 degrees Reaumur (113 of Fahrenheit). In gardens which were watered, fruit trees flowered twice. In 1723 and 1724, the heat was extreme. In 1746, the summer was very hot and very dry, which absolutely calcined the crops. During several months no rain fell. In 1748, 1754, 1760, 1767, 1778, and 1749, the heat was excessive. In 1811, the year of the celebrated comet, the summer was very warm and the wine delicious, men at Semmes. In 1818 the theatres remained closed for nearly a month, owing to the heat. The maximum heat was 35 degrees (110.75 Fahrenheit.) In 1830, on the 27th, 28th, and 29th of July, the thermometer marked 36 degrees centigrade (97.75 Fahrenheit). In 1832, in the insurrection of the 5th and 6th of June, the thermometer marked 35 degrees centigrade. In 1695 the Seine was almost dried up. In 1850, in the month of June, on the second appearance of cholera, the thermometer marked 34 degrees centigrade. The highest temperature which man can support for a certain time varies from 40 to 45 degrees (104 to 113 of Fahrenheit.) Frequent accidents, however, occur at a less elevated temperature.”
18 Jul 1852, 7 – The Observer at Newspapers.com
“Summer Heat Precedents.
A German writer, dealing with certain prognostications (usually heard at this time of the year) of great summer heat, goes back for precedents. In 637, he says, the springs were dried up and men fainted with the heat. In 879 it was impossible to work in the open fields. In the year 993 the nuts on the trees were roasted, as if in a baker’s oven. In 1000 the rivers in France dried up, and the stench from the dead fish and other matter brought a pestilence into the land. The heat in the year 1014 dried up the rivers and the brooks in Alsace-Lorraine. The Rhine was dried up in the year 1132. In the year 1152 the heat was so great that eggs could be cooked in the sand. In 1227 it is recorded that many men and animals came to their death through the intense heat. In the year 1303 the waters of the Rhine and the Danube were partially dried upend the people passed over on foot. The crops were burned no in the : year 1394, and in 1538 the Seine and Loire were as dry land. In 1536 a great drought swept through Europe. In 1014 in France, and even in Switzerland, the brooks and the ditches were dried up. Not less hot were the years 1048. 1779 and 1701. In the year 1715, from the month of March till October, not a drop of rain fell. The temperature arose to 38 degrees Reamer and in favored places the fruit trees blossomed a second time. Extraordinarily hot were the years 1724, 1746, 1756, and 1811. The summer of 1815 was so hot, the thermometer standing at 40 degrees Reaumur, that the places of amusement had to he closed. —London Daily News.
The Day – Google News Archive Search
17 Jul 1852, 7 – The Hampshire Advertiser at Newspapers.com
“Dry Times in the Past.
The history of the world drouths goes back to the year 627, when in France and Germany thousands of human beings died of thirst.
In the year 1000 the rivers of Europe dried up and heaps of fish were left to putrify and spread the plague that followed.
In 1123 the Rhine river dried up in Alsace. During the battle of Bela, in 1260, more men died from heat than wounds.
In 1303 and 1304 the Rhine, the Loire, and Seine rivers ran dry.
In 1779 many persons in Bologna were stifled. Shops all over Europe were closed for months.
In 1821 a plague of mice came with intolerable heat. More than 200,000 persons died from beat in France.”
21 Aug 1901, Page 3 – Shelby County Herald at Newspapers.com
“A RECORD OF HOT SUMMERS.
IN 637 the heat was so great in France and Germany that all springs dried up, and water became so scarce that many people died of thirst.
In 873 work in the field had to be given up; agricultural laborers persisting in their work were struck down in a few minutes, so powerful was the sun.
In 993 the sun’s rays were so fierce that vegetation burned up as under the action of fire.
In 1000 rivers ran dry under the protracted heat; the fish were left dry in heaps, and putrified in a few hours. The stench that ensued produced the plague.
Men and animals venturing in the sun in the summer of 1022 fell down dying; their throats parched to tinder and the blood rushed to the brain.
In 1132 not only did the rivers dry up but the ground cracked on every side, and became baked to the hardness of stone. The Rhine in Alsace nearly dried up.
Italy was visited with terrific heat in 1139; vegetation and plants were burned up.
During the battle of Bela, in 1260, there were more victims made by the sun than by weapons; men fell down sunstruck in regular rows.
In 1303 and 1304 the Rhine, Loire, and Seine ran dry.
Scotland suffered particularly in 1625; men and beasts died in scores.
The heat in several French departments during the summer of 1705 was equal to that in a glass furnace. Meat could be cooked by merely exposing it to the sun. Not a soul dared venture out between noon and 4 p.m.
In 1718 the thermometer rose to 118 degrees.
In 1779 the heat at Bologna was so great that a great number of people was stifled. There was not sufficient air to breathe, and people had to take refuge underground.
In July 1793, the heat became intolerable. Vegetables were burned up, and fruit dried upon the trees. The furniture and woodwork in dwelling-houses cracked and split up; meat went bad in an hour.
The rivers ran dry in several provinces during 1811; expedients had to be devised for the grinding of corn.
In 1822 protracted heat was accompanied by storms and earthquakes; during the drought legions of mice overran Lorraine and Alsace, committing incalculable damage.
In 1832 the heat brought about cholera in France; 20,000 persons fell victim to the visitation in Paris alone.
In 1846 the thermometer marked 125 deg. in the sun.”
29 Nov 1888 – A RECORD OF HOT SUMMERS. – Trove
50C (122F) in 1930
p2 – 30 Aug 1930 – The Telegraph (Brisbane, Qld.: 1872 – 1947) – Trove
48C (118F) in 1773
“In 1303 the Rhine, Loire, and Seine ran dry.
‘It seemed as if New Work was on fire in 1853, ‘During ‘the week 214 people were killed in that city of sunstroke.
In France, in 1718, marry shops had to close, The theatres did not open their doors for three months, Not a drop of water fell during six months, In 1773 the thermometer rose to 118 degrees,
The heat in several of the French provinces during the summer of 1705 wus equal to that of a glass furnaces, Meat could be prepared for the tube merely by exposing it to the sun, Not a soul dared venture out between noon and 4 p.m.
In 1809 Spain was visited by a sweltering temperature that is described us fearful, Madrid and other cities were deserted and the streets silent, Labourers died in the fields, and the vines were scorched and blasted as if by a simoom.
The year 1772 was o fearful one in New York. One hundred and fifty- five cases of sunstroke occured on July 4th, of which seventy-two proved fatal. The principal thoroughfares were like fields of battle, Men fell by the score, and ambulances were in constant requisition.”
25 Jan 1899 – “HEAT” WAVES THAT HAVE BEEN. – Trove
Meanwhile, people in British Columbia are terrified by nice weather.
This piece originally appeared at RealClimateScience.com and has been republished here with permission.
Rozy says
Totally interesting! Then there is the winter opposite–“Oh, this is the coldest weather ever.” Probably not. We have short memories when it comes to weather, and prognosticators count on that. Weather should be reported factually, and not described using adjectives. Just my two cents.
Shelley says
Fascinating piece of history. It clearly indicates that our natural earthly environment reacts to forces outside itself, like sun spots and all life – mammals, plants, etc. are subjected to life threatening and life taking high temps and probably low temps also.
What we perceive is the determinant for our understanding and it overshadows what others have experienced and noted before us. I truly believe that those who have no or little concept of man’s overall influence on the natural order of things tend to place too much emphasis on the ability of humans to control what is beyond their control. Our world was designed to flourish in a circular self-correcting manner so the environment we live in constantly recreates itself. Our dominion over it is limited…but in order for man to solve a problem one must convince others that the problem was caused by man. We already solved ‘the’ threat of high temps on mankind with electricity. Of course heat and dryness affects everything else which in turn threatens mankind. Such is the world we live in and we do make it worse with concrete and asphalt..
Prof Mudpie Dickens says
The truth is, there has been global warming recently – but it started around the time of the Revolutionary war, and is today still BELOW the average of the past 3,000 years. And this is not just for Europe, Greenland and North America, yet another red herring that has recently been thrown out by the desperate global warmers. The universality of the Viking and Mediaeval climatic optimums is written about by Kegwin, who wrote in Science, 1996:274:1504-1508, the mean surface temp of the Sargasso Sea (which lies roughly between the West Indies and the Azores), which was obtained by readings of isotope ratios in marine organism remains in sediment, shows we are, today, below the three thousand year average, and far below the Medieval Climatic Optimum. Civil Defense Perspectives, Mar. 2007, Vol. 23, #3, p. 1, notes that evidence for this climatic optimum has been found in all but 2 out of 103 locations where it was examined for, including Asia, Africa, South America and the western U.S. The following graph of temperature in the Sargasso Sea tells you all you need to know (note: that big horizontal line running across the page is the 3,000 year average!), Interestingly, the warmer times coincided not only with the best harvests, but also the least amount of major storm activity.
Prof Mudpie Dickens says
Patrick Moore, a founding member of Greenpeace, has now gone on record against the global warming hysteria (see his interview in the movie Not Evil, Just Wrong), and went on record as saying “We are told C02 is toxic and a pollutant, or a toxic pollutant, even better. It’s so ironic because anyone who knows anything about biology knows that C02 is the most important nutrient for all of life. It’s the currency of life.” In 2015 Moore also stated ““My skepticism (about the global warmers) begins with the believers’ certainty they can predict the global climate with a computer model. The entire basis for the doomsday climate change scenario is the hypothesis increased atmospheric carbon dioxide due to fossil fuel emissions will heat the Earth to unlivable temperatures. In fact, the Earth has been warming very gradually for 300 years, since the Little Ice Age ended, long before heavy use of fossil fuels. Prior to the Little Ice Age, during the Medieval Warm Period, Vikings colonized Greenland and Newfoundland, when it was warmer there than today. And during Roman times, it was warmer, long before fossil fuels revolutionized civilization.”
More Moore: the ecologist and co-founder of Greenpeace, also has said about AGW “We are dealing with pure political propaganda that has nothing to do with science,”
Patrick Moore – who has changed his mind and now does not believe in AGW – has come out in favour of nuclear power, noting “”Safe” is a relative thing. People ask about Fukushima and Chernobyl and Three Mile Island. All of those combined are nothing compared to the death toll of other technologies like fossil fuels and even hydroelectric. One hydroelectric accident resulted in 126,000 people dying in China in 1975. Another one just a couple of years ago in Russia killed more people than the nuclear industry has killed in its entire history. So we need perspective. Every year 1.2 million people die in vehicle accidents, but we don’t ban vehicles. Nuclear is one of the safest technologies we have, even for workers in the industry. Columbia University did a study published in 2004 of 53,000 nuclear plant workers showing that they have fewer cancers, less disease and live longer than the average American.”
Prof Mudpie Dickens says
r. Will Happer physicist at Princeton Univ, who has stated “Policies to slow CO2 emissions are really based on nonsense,” at a Texas Public Policy Foundation meeting. Happer, Dr. Richard Lindzen of MIT and others at this meeting said claims of the hottest year on record are “nonsense” because there’s so much uncertainty surrounding surface temperature readings — especially since scientists often make lots of adjustments to weather station readings
In 2014, famed astronaut Walt Cunningham went to that year’s global warming UN climate Summit and called the whole AGW gambit “one of the biggest frauds in the field of science.”
Dr. Lennart Bengtsson, a leading Swedish meteorologist, withdrew from membership in the Global Warming Policy Foundation, citing unbearable group pressure to conform to the AGW hypothesis, which threatened his ability to work and even his safety. Similarly, climate statistics professor Dr. Cliff Rossiter wrote in the WSJ that global warming was “unproved science,” he was terminated form his 23 year fellowship at the liberal Inst. for Policy Studies (see article by Climate Depot, http://tinyurl.com/p6otgd9.
NASA and NOAA, which get a half billion dollars a year from the government, “have been systematically fiddling the worldwide temperature for years, making ‘global warming; look worse than it is.: Joe D’Aleo, American Meteorology Society fellow, http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/noaa_2010_report.pdf
Dr. Anastasios Tsonis of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said, at least about 10 years ago, that the global temperature “has flattened and is actually going down. We are seeing a new shift toward cooler temperatures that will last for probably about three decades.”
“The difference between a scientist and propagandist is clear. If a scientist has a theory, he searches diligently for data that might contradict it so that he can test it further or refine it. The propagandist carefully selects only the data that agrees with his theory and dutifully ignores any that contradicts it. The global warming alarmists don’t even bother with data! All they have are half-baked computer models that are totally out of touch with reality and have already been proven to be false.” Martin Hertzberg, a retired Navy meteorologist with a PhD in physical chemistry
“If temperatures continue to stay flat or start to cool again, the divergence between the models and recorded data will eventually become so great that the whole scientific community will question the current theories.” Dr. Nicola Scafetta, Duke University
Heartland Inst. confirms this by noting “The IPCC’s climate science assessment is dominated by a small clique of alarmists who frequently work closely with each other outside the IPCC process.”
“ Like many others, I was personally sure that CO2 is the bad culprit in the story of global warming. But after carefully digging into the evidence, I realized things are far more complicated than the story told to us by many climate scientists or the stories regurgitated by the media.” Shariv notes that “solar activity can explain a large part of the 20th century global warming” and greenhouse gases are largely irrelevant to the climate, stating if the amount of C02 doubled by 2100, it “will not dramatically increase the global temperature….” And “Even if we havle the C02 output, and the CO2 increates by 2100 would be, say, a 50% increase relative to today instead of a doubled amount, the expected reduction in the rise of global temperature would be less than 0.5C. This is not significant” Dr. Nir, Shariv, top astrophysicist and assoc. professor at Hebrew Univ.
“Dr. Harold Lewis, on resigning from the American Physical Society stated about ClimateGate (exposing the outright fraud behind AGW), said he “found fraud on a scale I have never seen” and stated the money flood has become the raison d’etre of much of physics research. He concluded “The global warming scam with the (literally) millions of dollars driving it… has carried the APS before it like a rogue wave.” http://tinyurl.com293enhl
“‘There is this mismatch between what the climate models are producing and what the observations are showing,’ John Fyfe, Canadian climate modeler and lead author of the new paper, told Nature. ‘We can’t ignore it.’ And echoing this in a related blog post, “‘Reality has deviated from our expectations – it is perfectly normal to try and understand this difference,’ Ed Hawkins, co-author of the study and United Kingdom climate scientist”
Prof Mudpie Dickens says
“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical.” – Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology and formerly of NASA who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”
“Inevitably in climate science, when data conflicts with models, a small coterie of scientists can be counted upon to modify the data…That the data should always need correcting to agree with models is totally implausible and indicative of a certain corruption within the climate science community.” Dr. Richard Lindzen, professor of atmospheric science, MIT
Claude Allegre, a “founding father of AGW theory,” has now come out against this,stating “The cause of this climate change is unknown.”
“The climate scare (is) the biggest deception in history…”Dr. Tim Ball, environmental consultant and former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg in Manitoba
Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.
“The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists,” – Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.
“Creating an ideology pegged to carbon dioxide is a dangerous nonsense…The present alarm on climate change is an instrument of social control, a pretext for major businesses and political battle. It became an ideology, which is concerning.” – Environmental Scientist Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder of the Numerical Weather Forecast group, has more than 150 published articles.
“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC “are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity.” – Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico
“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” – U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA.
“Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will.” – . Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ.
“After reading [UN IPCC chairman] Pachauri’s asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it’s hard to remain quiet.” – Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society’s Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review. (Note: there really IS a Flat Earth Society, at http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/cms/, whose president Daniel Shenton, thinks “the evidence suggests fossil fuel usage is contributing to global warming.” (See http://www.tinyurl.com/ozn2wfe. So much for Obama’s comment that “We don’t have time for a meeting of the Flat Earth Society.”
“For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?” – Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.
“Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp…Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.” – Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee.
“Many [scientists] are now searching for a way to back out quietly (from promoting warming fears), without having their professional careers ruined.” – Atmospheric physicist James A. Peden, formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in Pittsburgh.
“Creating an ideology pegged to carbon dioxide is a dangerous nonsense…The present alarm on climate change is an instrument of social control, a pretext for major businesses and political battle. It became an ideology, which is concerning.” – Environmental Scientist Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder of the Numerical Weather Forecast group, has more than 150 published articles.
“CO2 emissions make absolutely no difference one way or another….Every scientist knows this, but it doesn’t pay to say so…Global warming, as a political vehicle, keeps Europeans in the driver’s seat and developing nations walking barefoot.” – Dr. Takeda Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology Research at Chubu University in Japan.
“The [global warming] scaremongering has its justification in the fact that it is something that generates funds.” – Award-winning Paleontologist Dr. Eduardo Tonni, of the Committee for Scientific Research in Buenos Aires and head of the Paleontology Department at the University of La Plata.
“Climate is not responding to greenhouse gases in the way we thought it might. If increasing carbon dioxide is in fact increasing climate change, its impact is smaller than natural variation.”Prof Christopher de Freitas, of the University of Auckland, NZ said there was no evidence to suggest carbon dioxide was the major driver of climate change (see http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/8039) (In 2003, Dr. de Freitas, who edits the journal Climate Research, had published a peer-reviewed article saying the recent warming is not unusual, relative to previous historical climate changes in the past 1,000 years. As you might suspect, Dr. de Freitas had to withstand multiple demands he be fired from his editorial job, as well as his university position.
“We’re not scientifically there yet. Despite what you may have heard in the media, there is nothing like a consensus of scientific opinion that this is a problem. Because there is natural variability in the weather, you cannot statistically know for another 150 years.” — UN IPCC’s Tom Tripp, a member of the UN IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] since 2004 and listed as one of the lead authors and serves as the Director of Technical Services & Development for U.S. Magnesium.
“The dysfunctional nature of the climate sciences is nothing short of a scandal. Science is too important for our society to be misused in the way it has been done within the Climate Science Community.” The global warming establishment “has actively suppressed research results presented by researchers that do not comply with the dogma of the [UN] IPCC.” — Swedish Climatologist Dr. Hans Jelbring of the Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics Unit at Stockholm University.
John Coleman, the sole founder of the WEATHER CHANNEL on AGW at . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC2jRQcgnj8
There is no consensus in science. Science isn’t a vote, science is about facts
There IS no global warming…. The government puts out about $2 ½ billion dollars directly for climate research every year. It ONLY gives that money to scientists who will produce scientific results that will support the global warming hypothesis of the Democrat party position, so they don’t have any choice. If you are going to get the money, you gotta support their position. Therefor, 97% of the scientific reports published support global warming. Why? Because those are the ones the government pays for, and that’s where the money is… that doesn’t make it right, that doesn’t make it true, that only makes it bought and paid for. There is no significant man-made global warming now, there hasn’t been any in the past, and there’s no reason to expect any in the future…. There is a whole lot of baloney, and yes it has become a big political point of the Democrat party and part of their platform and I regret it has become political rather than scientific.
The truth is, for upwards of 90% of the time during the last 600 million years of the Earth’s relentless “climate change”, the average temperature has been well above the current 15 C, sometimes by as much as 10 C higher. – David Stockman, Director of the United States Office of Management and Budget (1981–1985
Theoretical astrophysicist Valentina Zharkova, lead author of the study that reproduced the summary curve of solar activity for the last 3 000 years and predicted Modern grand minimum in 2020 – 2055, says the sun may soon enter a period of significantly reduced activity. The reduced solar activity could possibly cause a mini ice age similar to the Maunder Minimum in just 15 years from now. Their forecasting model has shown to have a 97% accuracy when mapping the past movements of sunspots, using data of solar cycles. Her work a https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.04482.pdf Her work discussing solar minima, reviewed here, goes backwards three millennia revealing 9 grand cycles lasting 350-400 years each. The summary curve shows a remarkable resemblance to the past sunspot and terrestrial activity: grand minima – Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 AD), Wolf minimum (1280-1350 AD), Oort minimum (1010-1050 AD) and Homer minimum (800-900 BC); grand maxima – modern warm period (1990-2015), medieval warm period (900-1200 AD), Roman warm period (400-10 BC) and others. Zharkova video here. Ole Humlum in Science Direct reports the same, reporing he identified persistent cyclic variations in records from Svalbard and Greenland,with some identified cycles corresponing to variations in the Moons’ orbit around Earth, some identified cycles correspond to solar variations, all leading up to the fact that warming since 1850 is mainly the result of natural climatic variations, where persistence of cycles makes climate forecasting feasible for limited time ranges. As well, NASA research shows the same as Zharkova, as reported here and shown below (note: this is a prediction, not a 100% confirmation).
John Pachol says
That’s an amazing critique of the world we live in. THANK YOU so much for sharing that testimony.
My father, an accountant, back in the 1960’s easily recognized that our planet constantly goes through cycles. Too bad our culture is so unaware and so unobservant today, that it can’t even recognize simple cyclical weather phenomenon. Thanks to our “Enlightened” existential ethos of teaching and training future generations, we can’t see past the end of our noses.
John Pachol says
I’ve been working on my family tree for the past 20 years (mostly with Ancestry.com). Most of my ancestors were in Europe for most of the heat waves described above. I am going to try and correlate these heat waves with my French and German ancestors and my earlier English ancestors. Then attached the appropriate article to their names with a Life Story on their profile. That should help preserve (hopefully) the history of heat waves for future generations.