In the midst of a strong El Niño, Lord Christopher Monckton of Brenchley reports that the “pause” in global warming, last counted at 18 years 9 months (through October 2015), shortened by December’s end to 18 years 8 months.

“The Pause” may continue to shorten through 2016 if, as usual, the second in a pair of El Niño years is warmer than the first, and 2016 turns out to be, as Roy Spencer predicts, the warmest in the satellite record (which excludes the probably warmer 1930s and the definitely warmer Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period, Minoan Warm Period, and much warmer Holocene Climate Optimum, and is a whopping 0.2% of the time since the end of the Ice Age). If that happens, climate alarmists will no doubt celebrate and declare the debate over.

But suppose it shortened every month by a month throughout 2016? The result would be a “pause” of 17 years and 8 months, which was long enough when reported in April 2014 to drive climate alarmists to panic. Since then, of course, they have worked diligently to foist on the public the impression that the absence of warming isn’t really difficult to reconcile with the climate models.

Of course global climate itself might have something to say. Perhaps cooling, predicted by many solar physicists who foresee declines in solar energy and magnetic wind output, both of which would lead to cooler temperatures, will ensue, and “The Pause” will then lengthen again, catching up to the 18 years 9 months length by the end of 2017, and perhaps continuing for ten, twenty, thirty more years afterward. Will the alarmists then cry “Uncle!” and admit their estimates of CO2’s warming effect, and consequently of any associated risks, are too high, and maybe the world doesn’t need to commit economic suicide to reduce emissions?