In early January, Roy Spencer and John Christy reported that:

“And, as calendar year values go, 2023 was the warmest of the 45-year record with an average of +0.51 °C (+0.92 °F) outdoing 2016 which finished that year at +0.39 °C (+0.70 °F). This calendar year was also warmer than any other 12-month period which before 2023 was Dec 2015 to Nov 2016 at +0.41 °C (+0.73 °F). Because early 2023 was much cooler than now, we can expect further 12-month records over the next few months.”

They also wrote:

“This major warm El Niño episode, a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean waters, remains strong and thus is keeping the atmosphere very warm as well. The tropical average temperature anomaly of +1.08 °C is the warmest December in the tropics in the 45-year satellite record. A value of 1.15°C in Feb 1998 still holds the record as the warmest tropical anomaly, but since El Niños often peak around Feb, there is a good chance that a new tropical record will be set in 2024. See NOAA’s excellent updates here.

It is tempting to think that the global temperature peaked in October at +0.93 °C and that it is now on the decline, but changes of a tenth of a degree are very common and changes of more than 0.20 °C happen every few months. So, thinking we have reached the peak warming of this El Niño is not a good bet to make at this point.” Statistically, 2016 slightly beats out 1998 as the second warmest year over the past 45 years according to the only comprehensive estimates of global temperatures. As Spencer and Christy further wrote:

“As noted above, the calendar year anomaly of +0.51 °C (+0.92°F) represents the warmest of the past 45 years as monitored by microwave sensors on polar-orbiting satellites. The global tropospheric temperature trend starting in 1979 is +0.14 °C per decade which is influenced by many factors operating on differing time scales. If we remove the influence of the early volcanic cooling episodes (El Chichon 1982, Mt. Pinatubo 1991) the background climate-trend is about +0.1 °C per decade and could represent the warming effect of the extra greenhouse gases that are being added to the atmosphere as human development progresses (see Christy and McNider 2017 for details of this type of analysis).

With temperatures so warm at the present, it is very likely 2024 will be well above average too, even though NOAA’s various forecasting tools suggest this El Niño will end mid-year.”

“A note about the global temperature trend. For several years, the trend has been extremely close to +0.135 °C/decade. This past July, the threshold of 0.135 was crossed at +0.1352°C/decade. The global trend is now +0.14 °C/decade by rounding up.”

The greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere, and the atmosphere has been warming over the past 45 years at a rate of +0.14 °C/decade, or 0.25 °F every ten years from all causes including changing intensity of the sun. Humans cannot sense this increase. It is tiny compared to the warming that took Earth out of the last Ice Age glaciation and the extent Earth is expected to cool during the next Ice Age glaciation.

The policies of the UN, the EU, and the US blame carbon dioxide for the small warming over the past 45 years and greatly exaggerate the number. The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, NOAA, and NASA reported that 2023 was the hottest year on record. All the government reporting organizations ignore the satellite data.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service had a graph titled “Global Surface Temperature: Increase above Pre-Industrial Level (1850-1900” with “temperature data” going back to 1850. Where around the globe were the thermometers in 1850? There were very few systematic recordings, predominantly in Europe and part of the US and a few scattered in Europeanized cities elsewhere. One cannot possibly accurately calculate global temperature data from a few points scattered around the globe, largely in urban areas.

NOAA issued its “Annual 2023 Global Climate Report” which also omitted atmospheric temperature trends. Interestingly, although the atmospheric temperature trend data shows 1998 was about equal to 2016, the NOAA report does not rank 1998 as one of the ten top warmest years, even though 2016 is ranked as the second warmest year.

NOAA shows calculations for Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Antarctica to one-hundredth of a degree C. Total nonsense! NOAA shows a 1910–2023 trend for Antarctica of +0.05°C (+0.09°F) per decade and a trend for 1982–2023 +0.02°C (+0.04°F) per decade. But there were few thermometers in any of these areas in 1910 and only two permanent stations in Antarctica in 1982. Comprehensive satellite data dates to 1979 but NOAA ignores these.

Not to be outdone, NASA released a report showing strong surface warming (equal to or greater than 4C) in the Antarctic Circle compared to the 1951-1980 average. Where were the thermometers inside the Antarctic Circle in 1951? The failure of these government organizations to report that large sections of the globe had no systematic temperature measurements in 1951 is atrocious, Antarctica is probably the worst example.

According to Wikipedia, the first Antarctic bases were established beginning with Ridley Beach in 1898 on the Adare Peninsula (71 degrees 41 minutes South latitude.). The Antarctic Circle is 66 degrees 33 minutes South latitude, so Ridley Beach was inside the Antarctic Circle, but it was quickly abandoned. Most early research stations were soon abandoned or were outside the Antarctic Circle. For example, Orcardas research station was established in 1903 on Laurie Island, which is outside the Antarctic Circle at 60 degrees 43 minutes South latitude.

It was not until 1957 when the Amundsen-Scott South Pole station (elevation 9301 feet, 2835 m) and Vostok Station at 78 degrees, 27 minutes South (elevation 11,444 ft., 3,488 m) that permanent stations were established inside the Antarctic Circle. Vostok station has a mean annual temperature of minus 55.2°C (-67.4°F) and recorded a low temperature of minus 89.2°C (-128.6°F). It was not until a French Italian research station, Concordia Station, at 75 degrees 5 minutes South latitude (10,607 ft, 3,288 m) opened in 2005 that a third all year facility was built on the Antarctic Plateau.

For NASA and other government organizations to show a dramatic warming of 4°C where there is no systematic record is absurd.

Ken Haapala is President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. This article first appeared in SEPP’s January 13, 2024, newsletter The Week that Was and is reprinted here by permission.