What was once tagged the “lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer” is now deemed “global boiling” by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. With such hyperbole, it looks like the United Nations is tagging another aphorism: “Make hay while the sun is shining.”

The hot summer weather has increased the hysteria surrounding the global warming hypothesis to a fever pitch. So, a cooling in the form of measured perspective is badly needed.

Enter “Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response,” by climate scientist Judith A. Curry. She is president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

“Climate Uncertainty and Risk” is a meticulous, well-documented treatise that captures the essential nuances of the climate field exceptionally well. The book is presented in three parts: The Climate Change Challenge, The Uncertainty of Twenty-First Century Climate Change, and Climate Risk and Response.

Much of the focus throughout the book is on statements and conclusions involving U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports, known as IPCC ARs.

The book demonstrates that climate modeling — heavily relied upon in the IPCC ARs — is much more complex, and the modeling results used in subsequent climate projections are much more uncertain than the public is led to believe.

Insufficiencies in the climate models can include inadequate representation of internal climate variability from natural and multi-decadal conditions like those associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and from volcanoes and the sun’s direct and indirect effects.

Overall, “Climate Uncertainty and Risk” provides a balanced, fair assessment of the content and conclusions of the IPCC ARs. Yet much attention is given to climate activists’ use of demonstrably implausible worst-case projections derived from some speculative conditions given, especially in earlier IPCC ARs.

The latest IPPC report, AR6, has more judicious statements and outlooks, which “Climate Uncertainty and Risk” explores to offer constructive critiques to help improve the report’s serviceability, incorporate added modeling parameters, and explore alternative methods for producing climate change scenarios.

“Climate Uncertainty and Risk” compares and contrasts some ancient but mostly more recent climate conditions and events in making a case for a broader inclusion of past situations to better understand and simulate the climate future.

And with respect to learning from recent history, the book includes a thoughtful look at climate change versus COVID-19 risk, especially relative to applying the “precautionary principle.”

Taking precautions is important, but careful application to specific challenges is advised.

“Climate Uncertainty and Risk” notes that by contrast to COVID-19, “the dangers are less clear cut for human-caused climate change. There are long time lags between forcing and response so that climate threats are in the future, with large geographic heterogeneity in the benefits versus dangers of warming. Further, any threats from climate change are convoluted with natural climate variability and energy systems that have enabled rapid human development and well-being over the past century.”

“Climate Uncertainty and Risk” is an essential contribution to understanding and mitigating climate change. Ms. Curry’s goal is to better inform the reader “as to the uncertainties and the various values in play” surrounding the judgments as to “whether warming is dangerous or whether urgent action to reduce CO2 emissions is needed.”

Her final chapter, “Climate Risk and the Policy Discourse,” captures essential elements of the climate issue and succinctly provides a reasoned perspective that must be seriously considered if a healthy and productive future is to be achieved for Earth’s inhabitants, especially the poor and those in developing nations.

Ms. Curry observes: “Simply put, people are considerably less exposed to weather and climate shocks if they aren’t poor.”

And further to the point, in an earlier chapter dealing with some conflicts with mitigation efforts, Ms. Curry quotes Kenyan activist and materials scientist Rose Mutiso from Ms. Mutiso’s November 2020 TED Talk: “Working in global energy and development, I often hear people say, ‘Because of climate, we just can’t afford for everyone to live our lifestyles.’ That viewpoint is worse than patronizing. It’s a form of racism, and it’s creating a two-tier global energy system, with energy abundance for the rich and tiny solar lamps for Africans.”

A much-needed perspective!

Anthony J. Sadar is an adjunct associate professor at Geneva College in Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania, and co-author of “Environmental Risk Communication: Principles and Practices for Industry” (CRC Press, 2021). 

This piece originally appeared at WashingtonTimes.com and has been republished here with permission.