I meet a lot of farmers in India. Two-thirds of India’s 1.3 billion people depend on farming. When they learn that I do research in environmental sciences, the first question they ask is, “How is climate change going to impact agriculture in India?”

Unpredictable Monsoon

The answer is not clear. Indian rainfall seasons have shown no specific trend over the past hundred years, and it is extremely difficult to predict the impact of warming or cooling. 

The farmers here—like those in most other agrarian countries—understand seasonal changes and their impacts on their crops and earnings.

However, even the most experienced farmer is quite lost when it comes to predicting the yearly rainfall levels as the tropical monsoon system—which provides most of the water for agriculture in India—is highly unpredictable.

As a result, farmers in India face challenging times each year, because their crops are highly sensitive to annual rainfall, and no one can predict what it will be. 

Farmer Protest, Nothing in Comparison to Rainfall Anxieties

In the last ten days, farmers in India have been in the news for a different reason. News agencies across the globe broadcast the Indian Farmer Protests at New Delhi. A fraction of farmers are protesting new laws, despite the laws’ being beneficial to them. 

Last week, on a 250-mile ride through an agricultural hotspot, I encountered one such protest. There could have been many others, but this one was small compared to those in India’s capital, which have been televised globally. 

Most of the farmers, especially those in the southern part of the country, were not worried as much about the new laws as about how much rainfall would come this year.

Abundant Rains and Resilient Agricultural Sector

In fact, many are happy this year, because most of the reservoirs and water bodies that serve their fields have received plenty of rainfall this year. In my home state of Tamil Nadu, the dams are full enough to avoid a drought in the next summer. The neighboring states have received normal to excess rainfall, too. Overall, India has had a good rainfall year. 

Still, there is no guarantee that next year will be the same. But this is because of the unpredictable nature of Indian monsoon, not because of any increase in global average temperature.

Despite the uncertainties of annual rainfall, the Indian farming sector has grown increasingly successful. The country has registered record crop outputs each of the past three years. With the rapid deployment of agricultural technology and the likely approval of biotech crop varieties, the yields are likely to continue to increase.

The agricultural sector here in India may be encountering a few problems, but climate change is not one of them.