Whenever “experts are shocked” they usually have marginalized or ignored altogether factors wrongly assumed to have no influence over their hypotheses, theories or beliefs.

Nowhere is this more evident than in climate science where changes in geophysical phenomenon continue to defy assumptions and forecasts presented by some of the most highly paid and influential scientists on the planet.

Among the most infamous examples is the failure of computer climate models to accurately predict real-world temperatures. This is predominantly due to the unscientific exaggeration of carbon dioxide’s (CO₂’s) potency in warming the atmosphere.

Now scientists have encountered more “shocks” as polar sea ice is refusing to behave as expected. Since September 1, 2024, an astonishing 579 billion tons of fresh snow and ice have blanketed the Greenland ice sheet, marking the most significant accumulation for that date in at least eight years—far surpassing the 1981-2010 average.

Meanwhile, both the North and South Poles are defying expectations, piling on more ice despite, as reported in hyperbolic headlines, “record-breaking” global heat. It’s a breathtaking, almost surreal twist in the story of our planet’s climate!

According to NASA, “Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum extent (the area in which satellite sensors show individual pixels to be at least 15% covered in ice) each September.”

In the post-2010 era, the September minimum extent of Arctic sea ice occurred in 2012, which was also the lowest since satellite measurements began in 1980. But ever since 2012, ice has been increasing or oscillating well above that year’s mark.

Likewise, the volume of sea ice has not significantly dropped since 2012 and there has been a nominal increase in volume since a low point of 2020. 

So, why is the minimum coverage of Arctic sea ice holding above the level of 2012?

One of the most obvious reasons could be that CO₂ is not as powerful a temperature control knob as claimed, which is a possibility that many well-funded scientists refuse to even take into consideration.

Also, remember that we are in the Holocene epoch, a warm geological phase between two glacial advances – one that ended about 10,000 years ago and the next expected to occur some number of thousand years hence. An upward tick in Arctic temperatures shouldn’t surprise us regardless of whether we emit CO₂ or not. In fact, Arctic ice levels witnessed in the 17^th century during the Little Ice Age were among the highest since continental glaciers blanketed Canada and extended into the lower 48 states to create the Great Lakes.

At one point, news media were abuzz with the unexpected gain in Antarctica’s ice mass. Antarctica gained ice from 2021 to 2023, with studies showing nearly 108 gigatons per year added, mainly due to increased snowfall in East Antarctica.

Data from Vostok and Concordia stations in East Antarctica indicate extremely cold temperatures in early May, with minimums of minus 106.6 degrees Fahrenheit at Concordia on May 12. With winter just beginning, the temperatures are likely to dive further.

As recently as 2023, Concordia station recorded one of its lowest temperatures for the current decade, a brutal minus 117.76 degrees. Similarly, at Western Antarctica’s Byrd Station, a likely all-time low of almost minus 50 degrees was recorded as recently as 2023. These numbers may be surprising, but they are in tune with the unpredictability of climate – and of nature in general. Let’s just admit it. Things are not as “straightforward” as crisis-obsessed scientists are making them out to be. The climate system is complex, and the science is not settled. Our understanding of climatic dynamics is in its infancy. And to suggest that changes –whatever the direction – in polar ice presage a catastrophe is infantile.

This commentary was first published at CO2 Coalition June 3, 2025.

Photo: Greenland glacial ice at shore. Source: NASA.gov.