Scientists studying the intensity of solar activity have declared that the earth is heading towards a very cold climate phase, akin to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century, or worse.
In a newly published paper in Astrophysics and Space Science, scientists have analyzed historic solar activity and have predicted that the next two solar cycles—25 and 26—will be weaker than all of the previous 24.
But aren’t we supposed to be headed towards a warming apocalypse?
Welcome to climate reality!
I’ve not met a single climate scientist who denies global warming. The warming trend of the last 150 years or so is universally accepted and documented. However, climate scientists disagree on details, like when the warming began and what caused it.
Contrary to public perception, global warming did not begin with the industrialization of our society, a period during which there was an exponential increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from anthropogenic sources.
The current warming trend began in the 19th century when the Little Ice Age—which had prevailed for at least two centuries—came to an end. No significant anthropogenic CO2 emissions brought the Little Ice Age to its end. The warming appears to have been purely natural.
And the most likely cause is the sun.
SOLAR CYCLES AND SUNSPOT ACTIVITY
Earth’s temperature levels are regulated primarily by changes in the sun’s activity. The intensity of solar activity influences changes in our climatic system.
Changes in solar activity are usually measured by the number of sunspots. Scientists observe periodic variations in the average number of sunspots and categorize them as “solar cycles.”
Each solar cycle lasts roughly 10 to 11 years and usually correlates closely with temperature on earth.
Weak cycles, with fewer sunspots, usually result in cold climatic conditions on earth.
Such was the case with the Little Ice Age, when solar cycles were weaker than any since then. Climatologists refer to the extremely low periods as the “Maunder Minimum” (~1645–1715) and the “Dalton Minimum” (~1790–1830).
Likewise, strong solar cycles result in warmer temperatures. The relatively rapid warming post-Little Ice Age can be attributed to increased solar activity.
Solar activity in the past 60 years has been higher than average for the 1150-year period for which we have data. This is the primary reason for the rise in temperatures in the 1970s through 1990s.
Satellite temperature measurements show no significant warming since then. For the past 19 years, temperatures levels have remained largely stable. Unsurprisingly, this lack of warming coincides with a decline in solar activity.
Alarm bells went off in recent years when scientists began predicting that we might be headed for a solar minimum. The recent paper on solar cycles 24 and 25 validates their concern and warns that the upcoming solar minimum could be more severe than the brutal Maunder Minimum.
The effects of efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, regardless of whether we succeed, will be miniscule compared with the impact of a solar minimum.
Any true climate enthusiast will respect the well-established and well-understood role of solar activity as the most significant drivers of climate on earth and warn people about the imminent cooling.
But political leaders’ obsession with global warming could leave us susceptible to the greater dangers of cooling.
This article was originally published at Clashdaily.
Featured photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash.
Ray DEANER says
Thank you Vijay for real climate science. The earth consistently goes through eb and flow since the beginning of time. I wish more people were open minded and would consider real facts. Too many SHEEPLE 😱
Rich says
This is clearly an ideological attack on science and the consensus on anthropogenic climate change. Global warming is occurring and is caused by human activity. The purpose of this site is not to explore scientific findings in any serious way, but rather to promote a political and religious ideology. It’s dangerous and irresponsible.
Zane McStormbranch says
Shoulda seen and felt the incredible cold winter we had here in Montana. Unbelievable low temps, epic snowfall and wind. Still weirdly cool now in May! And not just here:
http://www.IceAgeNow.info
You’re the one following a religion. Your “consensus” mugawumps are grant-funded cherry-picked globalist tools. A lot of scientists are well off the reservation.
Meghan says
Global warming was a really bad name for the climate crisis we are experiencing because -yes it’s warming in a lot of places, but it’s also cooling in other.
We’re seeing a shift.
You may have had a harsh winter, but theres more to the WORLD than Montana.
California and Alberta are recording record breaking fires, there’s more drought in certain countries, more hurricanes in others.
It’s fine if you don’t believe that there’s a climate crisis going on, but are you willing to bet your children and grandchildrens life on it?
Chris says
California has not had a drought in two years and almost no parts of the United States are currently experiencing drought: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Ralph Gardner says
The warmest temperatures in the US was the 1930s when thousands of people died from the heat and we had the dust bowl.
We are in a long-term ice that started 2.6 million year called the Quaternary Glaciation(fifth ice age) that nobody seems to mention. https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…
We are in a warm period called Holocene that is cooler than the last warm period 120,000 years ago called the Eemian.
In the Eemian the tree line went up past the Arctic circle.
By definition, the climate won’t change until there is no more natural ice on the earth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene
Stuart Malcolm says
> This is clearly an ideological attack on science and the consensus
Consensus is far from proof. Just because a load of people have a vested interest in going with the flow and not actually challenging it does not mean we need to trust them completely. Climate scientists are people too and need money to eat, the club doesn’t pay money to those who rock the boat.
Ever heard of climategate? That one event showed just how much salt I should pinch when listening to groups such as these.
The truth is that the science, that was supposed to be unbiased and open, has turned into a religion, placing people who agree and support the “consensus” on a financial gravy train, There is way too much money involved in climate change for me to take it as unbiased.
Show me a scientist who proved humans are the cause of climate change, yet got paid no money, got no grants from the oil companies, did it entirely on their own time and money. Then I may listen to them as I would see them as not benefiting by going with the group as humans evolved to do.
The climate deniers are not the ones who dont believe climate change is man made, its the ones who do. They fully and forcefully deny that a climate exists, that it remains static till WE do something.
Roger says
The earth goes through warming and cooling cycles and we cant do anything about it. Tying warming cycles to man- made CO2 is an attempt to get us off fossil fuels. Not proven. Go watch Al Gores first movie and think about it. And calling people climate deniers is a bullying tactic.
If you think global warming is settled science, you need to check out Amazon books and the 100s of scientists who have written books refuting it.
David says
Man I wish it was so simple as to say one side is right and the other is wrong, but it’s not so simple. The side and point of view you have taken is not based on science at all, but rather bias and lies(especially when American scientists are speaking) money manipulation has taken control over truth and we are definitely not being told everything. Ever think of why there really building those bunkers? Cause you can’t survive In the freezing cold with no food or water. Period
Andrea Silverthorne says
We are entering an ice age,but the sun is not responsible. Methane is the gas of the ice age because it makes its hydrate in the sky with its water vapor oxidant. We have tremendous excess methane in our atmosphere.
Ajax says
This is interesting. I’ve never heard this side of the argument before, and you make some valid points! But what could it hurt to produce less greenhouse gasses? Yes the temperature of the planet ebbs and flows naturally, but all the greenhouse gasses surely are speeding up the process.
Auston Louis, PhD says
I don’t believe that there was excessive methane gas in the atmosphere in both cold periods of 1790 through1830 and 1645 through1715.
James says
Meghan says
Global warming was a really bad name for the climate crisis we are experiencing because -yes it’s warming in a lot of places, but it’s also cooling in other.
So am I to believe Meghan that scientists willy nilly chose the words global warming when hopfully they had already considered the scientific facts of the earth warming and cooling before they named it.
James says
Meghan also said
It’s fine if you don’t believe that there’s a climate crisis going on, but are you willing to bet your children and grandchildrens life on it?
Yes Meghan actually I am. I have two grandchildren what’s the worse that could happen ones burns and the other freezes.
Ray says
I’ve been saying for years we are heading for a new ice age please can you keep me updated
fred hackworth says
The two propositions: ‘global warming’ and ‘the ice age cometh’ are NOT mutually exclusive – BOTH may well be happening more or less simultaneously. Yes, excessive amounts of CO2 and methane etc are being belched into the atmosphere and clearly this is affecting weather patterns.
At the same time, ancient ice and rock recovery (excavation) from the Antarctic and elsewhere suggest that the onset of the next mini Ice Age is long overdue. In addition, sun spot activity is declining, a phenomenon often associated with global cooling.
It is possible to maintain that ‘the effects of ‘global warming’ would be even worse were it not for what I and others suspect is the counter-force of planetary cooling.
Jeremy O'Brien says
Great article Vijay. Keep up the great work. I’m praying for you and your family during this difficult time.
Martin Kraut says
If by 2042 there is a serious ice problem then you can bet somebody will use the greater landmass.
Jovial Monk says
A Grand Solar Minimum, even a Maunder level GSM, will cool the globe by as much as the GHE warms the globe in a decade, 0.2°K.
Solar variations really are pretty minor.