A seriously hot summer between now and 2017 could claim more than 6,000 lives, the Department of Health report warns.
But it also stresses that milder winters mean deaths during this time of year – which far outstrip heat-related mortality – will continue to decline.
The report is to help health services prepare for climate change effects.
A panel of scientific experts commissioned by the Department of Health and Health Protection Agency (HPA) has looked at the way the UK has responded to rising temperatures since the 1970s, and how the risks are likely to change.
While summers in the UK became warmer in the period 1971 – 2003, there was no change in heat-related deaths, but annual cold-related mortality fell by 3% as winters became milder – so overall fewer people died as a result of extreme temperatures.
Rather than physiological changes explaining our ability to adapt to rising temperatures, the report puts this down primarily to lifestyle alterations – our readiness to wear more informal clothes, for instance, and the shift away from manual labour.
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