In a landmark move that may well redefine the future of U.S.-India trade relations and global energy geopolitics, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance announced the initiation of a new trade deal with India. The day after his meeting with the Indian Prime Minister Modi April 21, Vance said that the two countries had “officially finalized the terms of reference for the trade negotiation.”

The deal, initiated against the backdrop of Trump’s tariff threats, could turn out to be a masterstroke of economic diplomacy. Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, which could have raised duties on Indian exports, provided India with a window to negotiate.

The energy economics of this deal, and its potential to reshape the global market for fossil fuels, is particularly interesting. In his announcement, Vance declared, “We want to sell more energy to India and also help it explore its own resources, including offshore natural gas reserves and critical mineral supplies.”

The arrangement could propel India toward its long-standing goal of energy surplus – a feat that appeared daunting – perhaps impossible – against the nation’s projections for a massive increase in demand – the fastest-growing among major economies for the next two decades.

Let’s get it straight: India has a long way to go before it even contemplates applying the brakes on consumption of hydrocarbons. Even a middle-class Indian like me residing in a major city experiences power blackouts on a regular basis – precisely why the nation has postponed net zero ambitions to a distant 2070. Even the documents for the country’s participation in the nutty United Nations Paris Agreement clearly prioritize domestic energy security over international climate diplomacy.

Posing a strategic vulnerability is India’s reliance on imported energy, which includes over 85% of its crude oil and roughly 50% of its natural gas. The government looks to more than double natural gas’s share of the energy mix to 15% by 2030. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers have surpassed the United Arab Emirates to become India’s second-largest LNG supplier, trailing only Qatar.

A key player in this unfolding saga is GAIL, Limited, India’s state-owned natural gas company. On April 11, GAIL issued a tender to procure 1 million metric tons per annum of LNG from an existing or new U.S. LNG liquefaction project, with operations commencing by 2030. The agreement, potentially extendable by 5 to 10 years, signals India’s commitment to U.S. supplies.

GAIL had to stall a similar process in 2023 to buy a stake in a U.S. LNG plant after then-President Joe Biden banned export permits for LNG projects. It took the Trump administration’s return to the White House in 2024 to lift the ban.

Notable is the timing of the upcoming deal, which strengthens India’s position as a counterweight to China. The Quad alliance – comprising the U.S., India, Japan and Australia – gains heft as India bolsters its energy security and economic clout.

U.S. willingness to share technology and expertise, as Vance emphasized, could enhance Indian autonomy, reducing reliance on adversarial suppliers. This alignment is particularly crucial as China intensifies its trade outreach in Southeast Asia and seeks to blunt the effect of U.S. tariffs.

The Western media will decry the expansion of trading in fossil fuels as a climate catastrophe, as though that will resonate with a serious person.  The U.S.-India deal wisely eschews climate moralizing and embraces a symbiotic truth: America’s shale boom and India’s hunger for energy are a perfect match.

This deal is a reaffirmation of energy sovereignty. And perhaps it marks the beginning of a global recalibration, where nations rediscover the courage to assert their right to energy abundance and economic self-determination without apologizing to the corrupt and decrepit climate cartel of Brussels, Davos and U.N. corridors. May the new world order feature developing nations standing for their futures and rejecting the false campaign of planetary salvation.

This commentary was first published at The Washington Times April 28, 2025.