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Is 2017 Really the First Year since 1850 with Two Category-4 U.S. Landfall Hurricanes?

by E. Calvin Beisner

October 8, 2017

Keeping up the (false) drumbeat that manmade global warming is causing more frequent and stronger hurricanes, lots of media outlets, following the spectacular Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, have proclaimed 2017 the first time in the 166 years of records in which two Category-4 hurricanes made landfall on the mainland United States in the same year.

Among them were USA Today, PBS, Forbes, Fortune, Slate, The Daily Beast, Business Insider, New York Magazine, Townhall.com, and even Scientific American. 

Like them, Weather.com reported on September 10:

Harvey and Irma both made a U.S. landfall as Category 4 hurricanes.

Two Atlantic hurricanes of this intensity have never made landfall during the same year in the U.S.

For the first time in 166 years of weather records, two Atlantic Category 4 hurricanes have made landfall in the United States during the same year. [Emphasis added.]

… The winds for a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale range from 130 mph to 156 mph. Winds of that strength are capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Weather.com repeated the claim 10 days later.

And the claim’s true—sort of.

But it’s really false, because it compares apples and oranges.

Weather.com doesn’t mention that in 2012 the National Hurricane Center modified the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Speed (SSHWS) scale “in order to resolve awkwardness associated with conversions among the various units used for wind speed in advisory products.” Specifically, “The change broaden[ed] the Category 4 wind speed range by one mile per hour (mph) at each end of the range, yielding a new range of 130–156 mph.”

Why was the change necessary?

Because of the inherent uncertainty in estimating the strength of tropical cyclones, the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center assign tropical cyclone intensities in 5-knot (kt) increments (e.g., 100, 105, 100, 115 kt, etc.). Some advisory products, however, require intensity to be given in units of mph and kilometers per hour (km/h). For these products, the intensity in knots is converted into mph and km/h and then rounded to 5-mph and 5-km/h increments, so as not to suggest that the intensity of the storm can be known to unrealistic precision (e.g., 127 mph!). [Emphasis added.]

Prior to the modification, the SSHWS was:

  • Category 1: 74–95 mph / 64–82 kt / 119–153 km/h
  • Category 2: 96–110 mph / 83–95 kt / 154–177 km/h
  • Category 3: 111–130 mph / 96–113 kt / 178–209 km/h
  • Category 4: 131–155 mph / 114–135 kt/ 210–249 km/h
  • Category 5: 156 mph / 136 kt / 250 km/h or higher

So under the modified SSHWS scale, both Harvey and Irma were Cat-4 hurricanes at landfall, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. Under the pre-modified scale, both were Cat-3.

So in order to compare apples and apples, we need to ask not “Did two Cat-4 hurricanes ever make landfall on the mainland U.S. in the same year before 2017?” but “Did two (or more) Cat-3 hurricanes ever make landfall on the mainland U.S. in the same year before 2017?”

The answer: Yes, in 10 different years: 1852, 1855, 1879, 1893, 1909 (three storms), 1926, 1933, 1985, 2004, and 2005 (four storms).

In short, it’s false that, applying the same (pre-modification) SSHWS scale, 2017 was the first year on record in which 2 or more hurricanes of the same category as Harvey and Irma made landfall on the mainland U.S.

This article was originally published on Townhall.com.

Photo by NASA on Unsplash.

Dated: October 8, 2017

Tagged With: 2017, Hurricane
Filed Under: Bridging Humanity and the Environment, Climate & Energy

About E. Calvin Beisner

Dr. Beisner is Founder and National Spokesman of The Cornwall Alliance; former Associate Professor of Historical Theology & Social Ethics, at Knox Theological Seminary, and of Interdisciplinary Studies, at Covenant College; and author of “Where Garden Meets Wilderness: Evangelical Entry into the Environmental Debate” and “Prospects for Growth: A Biblical View of Population, Resources, and the Future.”

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Future Speaking Engagements

June 18-21, 2025–Dallas, TX

Cornwall Alliance will be a host of the Association of Classical Christian Schools’ (ACCS) annual Repairing the Ruins conference in Dallas, TX, and will have an exhibit booth.

Details and registration can be found HERE.

September 19-20–Arlington, VA

Dr Beisner will represent the Cornwall Alliance at the fall meeting of the Philadelphia Society and will have a literature table.

Attendance is for Society members and invited guests only. To inquire about an invitation, email Dr. Cal Beisner: Calvin@cornwallalliance.org.

September 26-27– Lynchburg, VA

Dr. Beisner will be speaking at the Christian Education Initiative Annual Summit, “Advancing Christ’s Kingdom Through Biblical Worldview Education.” 

Details and registration can be found HERE.

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