At +0.11C per decade rate, Global Average Temperature would rise 1.1C in a century, not the ~3C generally predicted by IPCC without CO2 emission reduction. Actual increase in the 36.5 years since 1978 is 0.407C. To wind up with 3C increase in the century from 1978 through 2077, we’d need to add another 2.593C in the remaining 63.5 years, i.e., 0.41C per decade, 3.7 times the rate so far.

Anybody got a good idea what’s going to drive that more-than-tripling of the rate of increase?

Or might it be time to slash estimates of climate sensitivity to added CO2?

 

 

Featured image courtesy of WattsUpWithThat.com, data from University of Alabama, Huntsville.