This is the second of a series of articles in which Cornwall Alliance board member and senior fellow Dr. Roy W. Spencer explains the importance of distinguishing urban heat island effect from global temperature increase and of recognizing that by choosing to live in warmer regions of the world and in cities rather than in cooler and rural or wilderness areas, people demonstrate their preference for warmer temperatures. You can find the first article here. As a follow-on to our … [Read more...]
New paper submission: Urban heat island effects in U.S. summer temperatures, 1880-2015
This is the first of a series of articles in which Cornwall Alliance board member and senior fellow Dr. Roy W. Spencer explains the importance of distinguishing urban heat island effect from global temperature increase and of recognizing that by choosing to live in warmer regions of the world and in cities rather than in cooler and rural or wilderness areas, people demonstrate their preference for warmer temperatures. After years of dabbling in this issue, John Christy and I have finally … [Read more...]
SITYS: Climate Models Do Not Conserve Mass or Energy
One of the most fundamental requirements of any physics-based model of climate change is that it must conserve mass and energy. This is partly why I (along with Danny Braswell and John Christy) have been using simple 1-dimensional climate models that have simplified calculations and where conservation is not a problem. Changes in the global energy budget associated with increasing atmospheric CO2 are small, roughly 1% of the average radiative energy fluxes in and out of the climate system. … [Read more...]
UAH Global Temperature Update for July, 2023: +0.64 deg. C
New Record High Temperatures and a Weird Month July 2023 was an unusual month, with sudden warmth and a few record or near-record high temperatures. Image: Creative Commons under Unsplash Since the satellite record began in 1979, July 2023 was: These results suggest something peculiar is going on. It’s too early for the developing El Nino in the Pacific to have much effect on the tropospheric temperature record. The Hunga Tonga sub-surface ocean volcano eruption and its … [Read more...]
UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2023: +0.38 deg. C
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June 2023 was +0.38 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is statistically unchanged from the May 2023 anomaly of +0.37 deg. C. The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land). Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 18 months … [Read more...]
The Urban Heat Island Effect in GHCN Station Temperatures: Urban Locations Show Large Spurious Warming Effects
It has been a while since I have posted progress on our DOE-funded research into the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in the GHCN station temperatures used to monitor land-based global warming. It should be remembered that everything I post on this subject is (as is usually the case) a work in progress. What I am addressing is the existence of localized long-term warming associated with population increases which are over and above the large-scale warming due to humanity’s greenhouse gas … [Read more...]
Americans Increasingly Choose a Warmer Life
We hear that a new El Nino forming in the Pacific Ocean is likely to push global-average temperatures to new record highs in 2023. Setting aside the fact that we have no idea if current temperatures are warmer than during the Medieval Warm Period of ~1,000 years ago, I have to ask… So what? Doing something about global warming depends a lot on how much we are asked to pay to fix it. If it was cheap and practical, we would have already transitioned to renewable energy sources. It … [Read more...]
Climate Fearmongering Reaches Stratospheric Heights
A new paper by Santer et al., provocatively entitled “Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature,” goes where no serious climate scientist should go: it has conflated stratospheric cooling with global warming. The paper starts out summarizing the supposed importance of their work, which is worth quoting in its entirety (bold emphasis added): “Differences between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature trends have long been recognized … [Read more...]
Epic Fail in America’s Heartland: Climate Models Greatly Overestimate Corn Belt Warming
For the last decade, I’ve been providing long-range U.S. Corn Belt forecasts to a company that monitors and forecasts global grain production and market forces. My continuing theme has been, “don’t believe gloom and doom forecasts for the future of the U.S. Corn Belt.” The climate models relied upon by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are known to overestimate warming compared to observations. Depending upon the region (global? U.S.?), temperature metric … [Read more...]
UAH Global Temperature Update for November, 2022: +0.17 deg. C
Sorry for the late posting of the global temperature update, I’ve been busy responding to reviewers of one of our papers for publication. The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November 2022 was +0.17 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is down from the October anomaly of +0.32 deg. C The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over … [Read more...]
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